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Prediction markets

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Resolved Polymarket and Kalshi markets with the question, outcome and volume, and the daily YES price.

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What it is

Resolved Polymarket and Kalshi markets with the question, outcome and volume, and the daily YES price.

  • prediction market markets: Resolved Polymarket and Kalshi markets: question, category, dates, outcome, volume.
  • prediction market prices daily: Daily YES price per market.

Source and licence

Source: Polymarket and Kalshi.

Licence: venue terms: odds stay hidden until cleared (AGENTS.md). This is our reading of the table; counsel decides.

The app shows it only while the server switch SHOW_ODDS_DATA is on.

Not licensed for display: Polymarket's and Kalshi's terms are not cleared, so the odds stay hidden in the app (SHOW_ODDS_DATA, off).

Coverage and gap years

12,476 markets, 12,476 rows in prediction market markets, from Oct 28, 2020 to Oct 4, 2026.

Years with no rows: 2021.

Thin years: 2022 to 2023.

TableRowsFirstLast
prediction market markets12,476Oct 28, 2020Oct 4, 2026
prediction market prices daily469,640Nov 18, 2022Oct 4, 2026

Freshness

Last row Oct 4, 2026: 5 days behind on the day measured. Updates: every day.

Point in time

Prices keyed on the day; markets keyed on when they opened and resolved.

No version history in the table: it holds the latest copy the engine loaded.

Delisted names

Resolved markets stay in.

Known issues

  • Kalshi has 42 price rows (41 markets, from 2026-10-03); Polymarket has 469,598. (WAREHOUSE, Gaps and freshness that matter)
  • Prediction markets. run prediction market backtest on Kalshi finds 0 bets at 7 days and 4 at 1 day. The tool description still says about 2,100 Polymarket markets above $4.68M. The result says 8,370 markets above $1,295,126. (ACCURACY, 8. Engine problems found by probing)
  • Kalshi has prices for 41 of 4,106 markets. (GAPS, 30. Prediction markets (score 1.33))
  • The Polymarket universe is a hindsight pick by final volume (8,370 markets over $1.3M). (GAPS, 30. Prediction markets (score 1.33))

Where it is used

No page in the app shows it yet.

Engine tools that reach it (your AI, over MCP):

  • pm_screen PREDICTION MARKETS, LIVE: every open market on Polymarket and Kalshi read against the crowd's resolved record: how often markets priced like it, this far from close, in its category resolved YES, the...
  • pm_grade One open prediction market (by id or a phrase from its question) with its read and the full calibration tables behind it, by category and across the record.
  • run_pm_backtest PREDICTION-MARKET backtest over resolved Polymarket and Kalshi markets: buy YES at the price N days before resolution (the earlier of scheduled close and actual resolution; markets already settled at...
  • query_warehouse Run read-only SQL (DuckDB dialect) directly against any research database.

Ask AI

Every count and date here was measured on Oct 9, 2026 from the QuantGPT engine's warehouse and is read from the catalogue file when the site is built. Metadata only: no vendor rows are shown.